Eurobowl Race Analysis: Elves Everywhere. What's the Counter?
34 nations have revealed their race selections. Who's best equipped to tackle the elf-heavy meta, and who will come out on top in Warsaw?
Reporting live from Krakow, as my Eurobowl journey has already begun! In a week's time, more than 900 coaches will descend on Warsaw for the big one. Last Thursday evening Jaskier from the Polish organising team lifted the lid on the race selections of all 34 competing Eurobowl nations, live on stream.
As Scotland Captain I've spent this season working with the team to test races, posit theories and catch up with other Eurobowl Captains to see how they're interpreting the meta. So with the races revealed I thought I might look at a few of the numbers that could be interesting, and indulge in the always entertaining business of using Elo to make a few wild predictions!
The Meta Is Clear…
As the ruleset developed, it became increasingly clear, much like previous Eurobowls, which races were likely to dominate the competitive meta. And so it proved, with elves leading the selections and setting the tone for what promises to be a very elf-heavy Eurobowl. High Elves, Dark Elves and Elven Union occupy the top three spots, selected by 29, 27 and 24 nations respectively. With elves firmly defining the meta, the challenge for captains has been finding the right races to counter them.
Indeed, there was even a case for taking all four elf races. Italy have done just that, and England might well have followed suit had GreenskinPhil, a known frog aficionado, not been a last-minute replacement for Purplegoo.
I considered the same approach for Scotland before settling on three elves, favouring a little more stability in what is a relatively low-gold environment. Wood Elves, however, are clearly the poor relations of this elf-heavy meta, appearing in just eight of the 34 national squads.
Beyond the pointy-eared contingent, Humans (20 nations), Necro (19) and Nurgle (18) have all benefited from generous resource packages through favourable tiering. Orcs (19) were also favoured, but are the odd race out in this group, owing their popularity to their inherent strength as a race despite sitting in Tier 1 with fewer resources and skills.
The race selections across all 34 nations paint a fairly clear picture of the emerging meta. But with almost every captain embracing the elves, the more interesting question is how they've chosen to counter them. And, as we'll discover, not all nations have arrived at the same answers.
How Are the Top Nations Tackling the Meta?
So how have the highest-ranked nations approached the challenge of countering the dominance of High Elves, Dark Elves and Elven Union? To explore this, I've ranked all 34 nations by Max Average Race Elo, calculated using each coach's highest-ever Regular Elo, regardless of race, averaged across their eight-coach squad.
It's an imperfect measure, as coaches may be playing different races from those on which they achieved their peak Elo, but it gives us a useful starting point to compare squads and their selections.
I've taken the top 10 nations and included Scotland because we are ranked number 11, just behind Canada, then compared their selections with the other 23 nations.
With the elves dominating race selections, the challenge for captains has been finding the right balance of races to counter them. There are different schools of thought on how best to approach this, and looking at the selections of our leading nations against the wider field reveals some interesting differences in how they've tried to solve the problem.
The first interesting trend is how heavily the top nations have leaned into Necro, with nine of our top 11 selecting them (82%), compared with just 10 of the remaining 23 nations (43%). With a generous resource package and a strong all-round roster, Necro looks to be one of the most trusted picks amongst the leading nations.
Nurgle and Lizardmen tell a rather different story. Nurgle appears in just four of the top 11 squads (36%), compared with 14 of the remaining 23 (61%). My own judgement when building Scotland's squad was that Nurgle would find it tough to lock down those pesky elves we're expecting to see in Warsaw, particularly when looking for coach wins rather than draws.
Perhaps more surprising is Lizardmen. Despite being the eighth most popular race overall, only England and France have selected them amongst the top 11 nations (18%), compared with 11 of the remaining 23 (48%). Lizards have traditionally been a strong tournament race, but the prospect of repeatedly facing difficult elf match-ups over the weekend may have given captains pause. Perhaps the captains from the leading nations have made that same judgement call, rather than spending the weekend watching their Saurus get clawed to death by High Elves!
So if not Nurgle, what race then? Well, the top 11 nations have looked for different ways to solve the meta. The table below shows how each nation has assembled its eight-race squad.
Looking more closely at those selections, three races emerge for consideration: Amazons, Undead and Tomb Kings.
In Scotland’s case we went for Amazons and Undead, because they were in the wheelhouse of our coaches and I also felt they had decent draw chances against elves. I’ll be honest I didn’t foresee Tomb Kings being as prevalent (1 in 4 nations selecting them) with such a strong elf-meta.
I suspect those Tomb King coaches could be in for a tough weekend if they find themselves sitting across the table from those pointy-eared bastards. I could be wrong, and if they get the right match ups where their Tomb Guardians can dominate the field against other bash races they might be good for a draw. However my read is they lack agency, one or two chips on those skellies or a popped ball and their drive just collapses.
Bretonnians are another interesting selection. Ten nations have taken them, almost a third of the field, but only France and the USA amongst our top 11 felt they needed the French Nobles taking to the field. The other eight selections came from nations ranked 18th or lower by Max Average Race Elo. Perhaps the attraction isn't so much Bretonnians themselves, but their potential as a star player caddy for Mighty Zug or Skrorg. It's a strategy that clearly has its believers, although the captains from the leading nations appear far less convinced.
One race I didn't expect to fall out of favour was OWA. After a hot streak of tournament results early in the season, I thought they'd feature in most national squads. However, an ungenerous Tier 1 package, compounded by GW putting Loner back on the Treeman, seems to have killed their appeal. Even Geggster, who piloted them for England at Home Nations, has switched to Necro. Only seven nations have selected OWA, including France, the USA and Denmark from our leading group. Perhaps a sensible judgement call, but time will tell!
Big Bold Predictions for Eurobowl
This blog wouldn't be complete if I didn't make a few bold predictions! With the race selections revealed and the Elo rankings to hand, it's time to stick my neck out and make a few calls ahead of Warsaw.
For context, here's how all 34 nations rank by Max Average Race Elo.
Of course, Elo should be taken with a pinch of salt, but what else do we have to go on? So, who am I backing to deliver in Warsaw?
Winner of Hosting Rights - Switzerland
Let's start with one I'm relatively confident in. Each Eurobowl, nations that have yet to host can compete for the right to stage the tournament two years later. Having captained Scotland to winning hosting rights in Budapest, I know that when you're in this race, everything else goes out of focus!
This year Finland, Lithuania and Switzerland are competing for hosting rights. We beat Lithuania on tiebreakers last year, and they'll be keen to go one better. However, I suspect they'll finish third in this particular side quest, as I believe Finland and Switzerland both having deeper benches.
Both captains, Ratogre (Finland) and Siggi (Switzerland), will give it everything, but I predict we'll all be eating fondue in 2029! With Siggi, Jokearo, Strider84 and Kithor, Switzerland have some seriously strong top boards, and I'm backing them to take home hosting rights.
Darkhorse, who’ll outperform their Elo ranking - Wales
I think this one's relatively straightforward. Last year's runners-up Wales are ranked 13th by Max Average Race Elo, but I suspect they'll comfortably outperform that ranking and be right in the mix for a top-eight finish.
Scotland, where do we finish - Top 10
Last year Scotland finished 14th, our highest placing in the modern era of Eurobowl, and secured hosting rights for Glasgow 2028. A great moment for Scottish Blood Bowl, but we're not standing still!
We've assembled a squad with the ambition of breaking into the top 10, and I think we've got every chance of delivering that if we stick to our game plan.
Winner of Eurobowl - Italy or England
With a fair wind and a favourable draw, it's not inconceivable that any of the top eight nations could win Eurobowl.
Let's start with what I don't think will happen: France completing the threepeat. They've been the team to beat for the last two Eurobowls, but I'm not convinced this year's squad has the same strength in depth. Perhaps it's my unfamiliarity with some of their coaches, but I suspect a third consecutive title might be beyond them. They could prove me wrong, but my money is elsewhere.
I suspect it'll come down to what's becoming a classic battle between England and Italy in the last couple of years. Italy have had the upper hand at Home Nations for the last two editions, including an unbeaten performance this summer. England's Lizards lost to Elven Union, while the Italian Nurgle coach did well to overcome a difficult racial match-up against England's High Elves to separate the two nations.
But England can give as good as they get. Tactics and Theatrics, many of whom feature in Team England, have enjoyed plenty of success on Italian soil, winning the Tilean Team Cup for the last two years in the four-board format.
There's precious little between the two sides, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another close contest in Warsaw. So I'm going to chicken out and say either England or Italy will win Eurobowl!
So what are your predictions for Warsaw? Let me know in the comments below!
I'm looking forward to seeing 900+ coaches in Warsaw next weekend, and particularly welcoming five new nations to Eurobowl: Brazil, Latvia, Luxembourg, Northern Ireland and Romania.
Safe travels everyone, and na zdrowie!
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