Eurobowl - Post Game Analysis
Elves were everywhere, but how did they fair and were my predictions right?!
The dust has settled after an incredible weekend in Warsaw. Whilst it’s still fresh, let’s look at how the Eurobowl meta played out and whether my predictions were on the money.
First, thank you to the Polish Eurobowl team for being fantastic hosts. My third Eurobowl leaves me with warm memories and new friends. A particular highlight was swapping jerseys with JanisTraveler, Captain of Brazil, the first South American nation to join the Eurobowl family!
Elves: did they live up to the hype?
Eurobowl nations fielded an average of 2.6 elves in their eight-coach squads. High and Dark Elves were the runaway picks, appearing in 29 and 27 of the 34 nations respectively. High Elves lived up to their reputation with a 57.5% overall win rate, the highest among races selected by at least five nations. They also returned a positive 51.1% against other elves across 47 games, excluding mirrors.
Arguably the shock of the tournament was how badly Dark Elves performed, with just 45.1% overall and 47.4% against other elves across 38 games. Even last year's no #1 coach on the NAF Annual Elo, AndyDavo, had a rough weekend with delves going 0 - 3 - 3. The graph below compares win rates with the percentage of squads that took each race.
So what of the other two elven races? Elven Union performed admirably, although their overall win rate of 52.8% was slightly below expectations based on the season’s data leading up to Eurobowl. They proved an excellent counter to the other elves, with a win rate of 55.6% across 36 games.
Woodies had been tiered overly harshly in my opinion, and their package left them with bare bones. Scotland chose to field specialist Mournival, joining just seven other nations in sticking with them and trusting their inherent strength. Their overall win rate of 55.2% placed them third among races selected by at least five nations. However, that comes with a caveat: Wood Elf coaches averaged 28 Elo above their opponents, so stronger coaching may have compensated for a limited roster. Against other elves, they fared less well with a win rate of just 41.2%.
Hidden, or not so hidden gems.
In my pre-Eurobowl blog I looked at race choices through the eyes of a captain, balancing the meta with the coaches available. The table below shows how those selections performed, with incidence, overall win rate and results against elves.
The standout gem beyond elves was probably Humans. They returned a solid 52.9% overall, but really came to the fore as kryptonite to elves, recording an incredible 59.3% across 43 matches. Skaven also deserves a mention. Those pesky rats only got 13 opportunities to tango with elves, but made them count with a 61.5% win rate. With 51.2% overall, the seven nations that spotted them amongst the crowd would have been happy with their return.
Undead were another strong pick, fielded by only 10 nations, including Scotland. Our man Talonbay contributed a credible 1-4-1 on his debut, while Undead’s overall win rate of 55.8% marked them out as one of the top-performing races. They returned a less impressive 47.2% against elves across 18 games, but remained a clever pick overall.
Quietly proving me wrong.
The race I worried about in this elf-heavy meta was Lizardmen, and I was right and wrong at the same time. Against elves they were appalling, stacking up a 1-5-10 record over the weekend, a win rate of just 21.9%. However, they more than made up for it when they weren’t facing their fleet footed pointy eared nemesis by chalking up a powerful win rate of 58.9% against non-elf races for an overall weekend performance of 51.3%.
England and France were the only two of our pre-event top 10 nations to field Lizardmen. England’s Pipey went unbeaten at 2-4-0, while France’s Raztout contributed an impressive 4-0-2. However, their racial matchups helped: Pipey faced just one elf coach, Austria’s Xurpils, and held him to a draw, whilst Raztout avoided elves entirely.
The other tight call for Scotland was whether to field Nurgle or Orcs. Either would have been in the hands of debut cap Dazzamac, and I backed him on his main race, Orcs. He recorded a credible 1-3-2, whilst Orcs overall managed 49.6% despite their limited resources. Against elves, however, they struggled, returning just 40% across 30 games.
Nurgle managed 50% both overall and against elves, despite their coaches averaging nine Elo below their opponents. On the evidence of the weekend, you’d have to hand it to Nurgle over Orcs.
Predictions: 2 out of 4 ain’t bad, kinda!
Dear reader, a couple of weeks ago I made some big bold predictions for Eurobowl. I’m pleased to report I wasn’t wholly wrong. Hoorah!
Winners of hosting rights: Switzerland!
This was always going to be one of the fascinating stories of the weekend. Three great nations competing for hosting rights; Finland, Lithuania and Switzerland. I confidently backed the Swiss squad’s strength in depth to bring home hosting rights. That confidence tanked when newcomers Northern Ireland beat them in round one! Congrats to Padster and his squad, probably the upset of the weekend for me.
Going into round six, all three contenders were next to each other in the standings. Switzerland held a slight edge on Strength of Schedule, but faced a stern test against last year’s runners-up, Wales. They took a close-fought 3-2 win, so fondue in 2029 it is! Congrats to Siggi and the Swiss team who now have hosting rights for Eurobowl XIX.
Darkhorses leaping all over the place!
I confidently predicted last year’s runners-up Wales would outperform their Max Average Elo ranking of 13th and challenge for the top eight. However, it wasn’t to be their weekend, finishing 15th overall. Instead, the dark horses were leaping out elsewhere!
Portugal topped the pile after three wins, notably against giants Germany and Denmark. Ranked 19th by Elo, that was positively nosebleed territory! Day two brought defeats to eventual winners Italy and runners-up France, before a solid draw with Canada secured a brilliant 10th place.
However, Portugal weren’t even the biggest dark horse. That honour goes to Slovenia, who climbed 14 places from 28th to claim a brilliant top-half finish in 14th. Congrats! Arguably though, Belgium had the standout weekend, rising from 18th to seventh after putting the USA and Sweden to the sword and notably drawing with Italy. See the table below for the dark horse movers.
Scotland and the ones that got away
I thought a top-ten finish was within Scotland’s reach. I also wanted us to improve on our 3-0-3 record in Budapest by giving away fewer round losses. We managed the latter, losing only to Lithuania and Sweden, but finished 2-2-2 and 19th. Against Lithuania, my throw-a-rock mistake turned a win into a draw, leaving Scotland with a round loss. My fault entirely, and a painful one.
Our opening draw against Australia was a missed opportunity. As lovely as Clay and the lads are, we’d banked four wins and looked comfortable for draws on the remaining boards before they collapsed. Curses, Nuffle! On the positive side, we hung tough for a good draw against Norway and blooded three new caps who will come back stronger for the experience.
If you’d asked me who would finish day one bottom of the ladder, I wouldn’t have picked the mighty USA with three losses! They rallied to finish 20th, but were the biggest fallers against their pre-event Elo ranking. England, whom I’d tipped to challenge for the title, will also have been disappointed to finish outside the top ten in 11th. See the table below for the nations left lamenting missed opportunities in Warsaw.
Congratulations Italy for making me look good… oh and winning Eurobowl
I was never in doubt about my prediction of Italy becoming eventual winners and they did it the hard way too. They saw off France - runners-up, England and Portugal with solid draws against Team Germany, who finished third, and a solid Team Belgium, the surprise package of the weekend. Menzongna and co. deserved their win and my heartiest congratulations to the lads. I look forward to tussling with them over the board as Cream in Carbonara aims to rise to the top in Italy at the Tilean Team Cup next year!
Glasgow next!
I’m already excited for the Eurobowl XVIII and not least because I’m it’s TO. There’s plenty of things to digest about a cracking Polish Eurobowl - and we’ll look to infuse the good stuff we’ve learnt from them to deliver an excellent weekend in 2028. Watch this space…
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